Prediction of Cancer Incidence and Mortality in Korea, 2025
Article information
Abstract
Purpose
This study aimed to project cancer incidence and mortality for 2025 to estimate Korea’s current cancer burden.
Materials and Methods
Cancer incidence data from 1999 to 2022 were obtained from the Korea National Cancer Incidence Database, while cancer mortality data from 1993 to 2023 were acquired from Statistics Korea. Cancer incidence and mortality were projected by fitting a linear regression model to observed age-specific cancer rates against their respective years and then by multiplying the projected age-specific rates by the anticipated age-specific population for 2025. A joinpoint regression model was applied to identify significant changes in trends, using only the most recent trend data for predictions.
Results
A total of 304,754 new cancer cases and 84,019 cancer deaths are expected in Korea in 2025. The most commonly diagnosed cancer is projected to be thyroid cancer, followed by the colorectal, lung, breast, prostate and stomach cancers. These six cancers are expected to account for 63.8% of the total cancer burden. Lung cancer is expected to be the leading cause of cancer-related deaths, followed by liver, colorectal, pancreatic, stomach, and gallbladder cancers, together comprising 66.6% of total cancer deaths.
Conclusion
The increasing incidence of female breast cancer and the rise in prostate and pancreatic cancers are expected to continue. As aging accelerates, cancer commonly found in older adults are projected to rise significantly.
Introduction
Cancer is the leading cause of death in Korea [1], and has been a major public health concern since 1983. In 2021, approximately 280,000 new cancer cases were diagnosed in Korea, and 26% of total deaths were attributed to cancer [2]. Despite Korea’s efficient cancer registration system, which provides nationwide cancer statistics relatively quickly, a lag of at least 2 years is required to collect and analyze data for a specific year. To facilitate comprehensive cancer control planning, estimating the number of new cases and deaths expected in the current year is essential. This study presents projections of cancer incidence and mortality for the year 2025 based on data from the 1990s to 2022.
Materials and Methods
The Korean Ministry of Health and Welfare initiated a nationwide, hospital-based cancer registry, known as the Korea Central Cancer Registry (KCCR), in 1980. The history, objectives, and activities of the KCCR have been documented in detail elsewhere [3]. Cancer incidence data from 1999 to 2022 were obtained from the Korea National Cancer Incidence Database (KNCI DB). Cancer cases were classified according to the International Classification of Diseases for Oncology, 3rd edition [4] and converted according to the International Classification of Diseases, 10th edition (ICD-10) [5]. Mortality data from 1993 to 2023 were acquired from Statistics Korea [1]. The cause of death was coded and classified according to the ICD-10 [5].
The cancer sites included in this study were (1) all cancer sites combined and (2) the 24 cancer sites as follows: lips, oral cavity, and pharynx (C00-C14), esophagus (C15), stomach (C16), colon and rectum (C18-C20), liver (C22), gallbladder etc. (C23-C24), pancreas (C25), larynx (C32), lung (C33-C34), breast (C50), cervix uteri (C53), corpus uteri (C54), ovary (C56), prostate (C61), testis (C62), kidney (C64), bladder (C67), brain and central nervous system (C70-C72), thyroid (C73), Hodgkin lymphoma (C81), non-Hodgkin lymphoma (C82-C86, C96), multiple myeloma (C90), leukemia (C91-C95), and other and ill-defined sites (remainder of C00-C96).
The population data from 1993 to 2025 were obtained from the resident registration population data, reported by Statistics Korea. Data of the mid-year population (July 1 of the respective year) were used as the denominator to obtain the annual incidence and mortality rates. However, for the year 2025, we used the population data on December 31, 2024, as the mid-2025 resident registration population data were not yet available at the time of the analysis.
Linear regression models [6] were used to assess time trends and create projections. We first performed a joinpoint regression analysis on the data available to detect the year when significant changes occurred in cancer trends according to sex and cancer site. A joinpoint regression describes changes in data trends by connecting several different line segments on a log scale at “Joinpoints.” This analysis was performed using Joinpoint software ver. 5.0.2.2 (http://surveillance.cancer.gov/joinpoint) from the Surveillance Research Program of the US National Cancer Institute [7]. For the analysis, we arranged to have at least four data points between consecutive joinpoints. Secondly, to predict age-specific cancer rates, a linear regression model was fitted to age-specific rates by 5-year age groups against their respective years, based on the observed cancer incidence data of the latest trends. Finally, we multiplied the projected age-specific rates by the age-specific population to get the projected number of cancer cases and deaths for the year 2025.
We summarized the results using crude rates (CRs) and age-standardized rates (ASRs) of cancer incidence and mortality. ASRs were standardized using the Segi’s world standard population [8] and expressed per 100,000 persons.
Results
1. Incidence
In total, 304,754 new cancer cases are expected to occur in 2025 (Table 1, Fig. 1); more men (n=158,103) than women (n=146,651) are expected to be affected.
Estimated new cancer cases and deaths by sex during 2025 in Korea
The 10 leading types of estimated new cancer cases and deaths by sex in 2025. (A) Estimated new cases. (B) Estimated deaths.
The projected CRs per 100,000 for all of the sites combined in 2025 are 620.1 cases and 570.2 cases for men and women, respectively (Table 2). The projected ASRs per 100,000 for all of the sites combined are 294.9 cases and 310.5 cases for men and women, respectively. In men, the five leading primary sites of cancer are expected to be the prostate (CR, 106.8; ASR, 42.5), lung (CR, 90.7; ASR, 36.7), colon and rectum (CR, 81.8; ASR, 42.5), stomach (CR, 59.1; ASR, 26.1), and thyroid (CR, 42.4; ASR, 30.6), accounting for 61.4% of all new cancer cases in 2025. In women, the five leading primary sites are expected to be the breast (CR, 128.9; ASR, 76.8), thyroid (CR, 110.8; ASR, 84.7), colon and rectum (CR, 59.1; ASR, 28.0), lung (CR, 47.5; ASR, 18.2), and stomach (CR, 31.9; ASR, 13.1), accounting for 66.3% of all new cancer cases in 2025 (Fig. 1).
Estimated crude and age-standardized cancer incidences by sex during 2025 in Korea
The five most common cancer sites expected in 2025 according to sex and age group are shown in Table 3. Leukemia and thyroid cancer are expected to be the most common forms of cancer in both sexes for those aged 0-14 years and 15-34 years, respectively. Colorectal cancer is predicted to be the most common cancer in men aged 35-64 years, while prostate cancer is expected to be more frequent in men aged 65 years and above. Breast cancer is predicted to be the most common cancer in women aged 35-64 years, whereas lung cancer is expected to be the most common form in women aged 65 years and above. According to the projection, the incidences of stomach, lung, liver, colorectal, and prostate cancers will increase gradually with age for men (Fig. 2A). In women, the age-specific incidence rates for stomach, colorectal, liver, lung, and cervical cancers denote an increasing trend with age; however, the incidences of breast and thyroid cancers in women are expected to level off after the age of 45 and 50 years, respectively (Fig. 2B).
Estimated cancer incidence by age group and sex during 2025 in Korea
Projected age-specific incidences of major cancers during 2025 in Korea. (A) Men. (B) Women.
2. Mortality
It is estimated that 84,019 cancer deaths will occur in Korea during 2025 (Table 1, Fig. 1). The projected CRs per 100,000 for all of the sites combined in 2025 for men and women are 201.9 cases and 126.5 cases, respectively, whereas the projected ASRs per 100,000 for all sites combined for men and women are expected to be 80.8 cases and 40.8 cases, respectively (Table 4). The predicted five leading cancer sites causing mortality in men are the lung (CR, 52.6; ASR, 19.9), liver (CR, 25.6; ASR, 10.6), colon and rectum (CR, 19.1; ASR, 7.9), stomach (CR, 17.4; ASR, 7.2) and pancreas (CR, 16.3; ASR, 6.7). During the same period, lung cancer (CR, 18.5; ASR, 5.3) is projected to be the leading cause of cancer death in women, followed by pancreatic (CR, 15.7; ASR, 4.7), colon and rectal (CR, 15.3; ASR, 4.3), breast (CR, 11.6; ASR, 5.5) and gallbladder (CR, 10.4; ASR, 2.6) cancers.
Estimated crude and age-standardized cancer mortality rates by sex during 2025 in Korea
The predicted age-specific mortality rates of the leading causes of cancer-associated death in men and women in 2025 are shown in detail in Fig. 3. According to age, Korean men and women aged at least 60 years are expected to have the highest mortality rates due to lung cancer.
Projected age-specific mortality rates of major cancers during 2025 in Korea. (A) Men. (B) Women.
Conclusion
A total of 304,754 new cancer cases and 84,019 cancer deaths are expected to occur in Korea during 2025. Prostate cancer is predicted to be the most common cancer in men, while breast cancer remains the most frequent in women. The leading causes of cancer mortality will continue to be lung, liver, colorectal, and pancreatic cancers.
The increasing incidence of breast cancer among women and the rise in prostate and pancreatic cancers due to population aging are expected to continue. As aging accelerates, cancers commonly found in older adults are projected to rise significantly. Additionally, pancreatic cancer has shown a remarkable increase among women, projecting the second leading cause of cancer death in women, highlighting the need for further investigation and targeted prevention strategies.
Since our estimates are model-based, results should be interpreted with caution. The effects of coronavirus disease 2019 on cancer incidence trends, along with changes in diagnostic criteria for stomach and colorectal cancer [2], may influence projections.
Notes
Author Contributions
Conceived and designed the analysis: Jung KW.
Collected the data: Jung KW, Kang MJ, Kong HJ, Kim HJ, Park EH, Yun EH, Kim JE.
Contributed data or analysis tools: Jung KW, Kang MJ, Kong HJ, Kim HJ, Park EH, Yun EH, Kim JE.
Performed the analysis: Jung KW.
Wrote the paper: Jung KW.
Interpretation and review: Kang MJ, Park EH, Yun EH, Kim HJ, Kim JE, Chio KS, Yang HK.
Conflicts of Interest
Conflict of interest relevant to this article was not reported.
Funding
This work was supported by the National Cancer Center research grant (No. 2510681).
Acknowledgments
We thank the tumor registrars (health information managers) of the KCCR-affiliated hospitals and non-KCCR-affiliated hospitals for data collection, abstraction, and coding. We also acknowledge the National Health Insurance Service and Statistics Korea for data support.