Purpose
Gastric cancer (GC) prediction models hold potential for enhancing early detection by enabling the identification of high-risk individuals, facilitating personalized risk-based screening, and optimizing the allocation of healthcare resources.
Materials and Methods
In this study, we developed a machine learning-based GC prediction model utilizing data from the Korean National Health Insurance Service, encompassing 10,515,949 adults who had not been diagnosed with GC and underwent GC screening during 2013-2014, with a follow-up period of 5 years. The cohort was divided into training and test datasets at an 8:2 ratio, and class imbalance was mitigated through random oversampling.
Results
Among various models, logistic regression demonstrated the highest predictive performance, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.708, which was consistent with the AUC obtained in external validation (0.669). Importantly, the outcomes were robust to missing data imputation and variable selection. The SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) algorithm enhanced the explainability of the model, identifying advancing age, being male, Helicobacter pylori infection, current smoking, and a family history of GC as key predictors of elevated risk.
Conclusion
This predictive model could significantly contribute to the early identification of individuals at elevated risk for GC, thereby enabling the implementation of targeted preventive strategies. Furthermore, the integration of noninvasive and cost-effective predictors enhances the clinical utility of the model, supporting its potential application in routine healthcare settings.
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Development and validation of a prediction model for myelosuppression in lung cancer patients after platinum-based doublet chemotherapy: a multifactorial analysis approach Xueyan Li American Journal of Cancer Research.2025; 15(2): 470. CrossRef
Purpose This study aimed to develop a machine learning–based approach to identify prognostic gene signatures for early-stage triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) using next-generation sequencing data from Asian populations.
Materials and Methods We utilized next-generation sequencing data to analyze gene expression profiles and identify potential biomarkers. Our methodology involved integrating various machine learning techniques, including feature selection and model optimization. We employed logistic regression, Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves to validate the identified gene signatures.
Results We identified a gene signature significantly associated with relapse in TNBC patients. The predictive model demonstrated robustness and accuracy, with an area under the ROC curve of 0.9087, sensitivity of 0.8750, and specificity of 0.9231. The Kaplan-Meier survival analysis revealed a strong association between the gene signature and patient relapse, further validated by logistic regression analysis.
Conclusion This study presents a novel machine learning-based prognostic tool for TNBC, offering significant implications for early detection and personalized treatment. The identified gene signature provides a promising approach for improving the management of TNBC, contributing to the advancement of precision oncology.
Harim Kim, Jonghoon Kim, Soohyun Hwang, You Jin Oh, Joong Hyun Ahn, Min-Ji Kim, Tae Hee Hong, Sung Goo Park, Joon Young Choi, Hong Kwan Kim, Jhingook Kim, Sumin Shin, Ho Yun Lee
Cancer Res Treat. 2025;57(1):57-69. Published online June 26, 2024
Purpose This study aimed to develop a magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)–based radiomics model to predict high-risk pathologic features for lung adenocarcinoma: micropapillary and solid pattern (MPsol), spread through air space, and poorly differentiated patterns.
Materials and Methods As a prospective study, we screened clinical N0 lung cancer patients who were surgical candidates and had undergone both 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography–computed tomography (PET/CT) and chest CT from August 2018 to January 2020. We recruited patients meeting our proposed imaging criteria indicating high-risk, that is, poorer prognosis of lung adenocarcinoma, using CT and FDG PET/CT. If possible, these patients underwent an MRI examination from which we extracted 77 radiomics features from T1-contrast-enhanced and T2-weighted images. Additionally, patient demographics, maximum standardized uptake value on FDG PET/CT, and the mean apparent diffusion coefficient value on diffusion-weighted image, were considered together to build prediction models for high-risk pathologic features.
Results Among 616 patients, 72 patients met the imaging criteria for high-risk lung cancer and underwent lung MRI. The magnetic resonance (MR)–eligible group showed a higher prevalence of nodal upstaging (29.2% vs. 4.2%, p < 0.001), vascular invasion (6.5% vs. 2.1%, p=0.011), high-grade pathologic features (p < 0.001), worse 4-year disease-free survival (p < 0.001) compared with non-MR-eligible group. The prediction power for MR-based radiomics model predicting high-risk pathologic features was good, with mean area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) value measuring 0.751-0.886 in test sets. Adding clinical variables increased the predictive performance for MPsol and the poorly differentiated pattern using the 2021 grading system (AUC, 0.860 and 0.907, respectively).
Conclusion Our imaging criteria can effectively screen high-risk lung cancer patients and predict high-risk pathologic features by our MR-based prediction model using radiomics.
Hae Dong Lee, Kyung Han Nam, Cheol Min Shin, Hye Seung Lee, Young Hoon Chang, Hyuk Yoon, Young Soo Park, Nayoung Kim, Dong Ho Lee, Sang-Hoon Ahn, Hyung-Ho Kim
Cancer Res Treat. 2023;55(4):1240-1249. Published online March 21, 2023
Purpose
To identify important features of lymph node metastasis (LNM) and develop a prediction model for early gastric cancer (EGC) using a gradient boosting machine (GBM) method.
Materials and Methods
The clinicopathologic data of 2556 patients with EGC who underwent gastrectomy were used as training set and the internal validation set (set 1) at a ratio of 8:2. Additionally, 548 patients with EGC who underwent endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD) as the initial treatment were included in the external validation set (set 2). The GBM model was constructed, and its performance was compared with that of the Japanese guidelines.
Results
LNM was identified in 12.6% (321/2556) of the gastrectomy group (training set & set 1) and 4.3% (24/548) of the ESD group (set 2). In the GBM analysis, the top five features that most affected LNM were lymphovascular invasion, depth, differentiation, size, and location. The accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and the area under the receiver operating characteristics of set 1 were 0.566, 0.922, 0.516, and 0.867, while those of set 2 were 0.810, 0.958, 0.803, and 0.944, respectively. When the sensitivity of GBM was adjusted to that of Japanese guidelines (beyond the expanded criteria in set 1 [0.922] and eCuraC-2 in set 2 [0.958]), the specificities of GBM in sets 1 and 2 were 0.516 (95% confidence interval, 0.502-0.523) and 0.803 (0.795-0.805), while those of the Japanese guidelines were 0.502 (0.488-0.509) and 0.788 (0.780-0.790), respectively.
Conclusion
The GBM model showed good performance comparable with the eCura system in predicting LNM risk in EGCs.
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A machine learning model for predicting the lymph node metastasis of early gastric cancer not meeting the endoscopic curability criteria Minoru Kato, Yoshito Hayashi, Ryotaro Uema, Takashi Kanesaka, Shinjiro Yamaguchi, Akira Maekawa, Takuya Yamada, Masashi Yamamoto, Shinji Kitamura, Takuya Inoue, Shunsuke Yamamoto, Takashi Kizu, Risato Takeda, Hideharu Ogiyama, Katsumi Yamamoto, Kenji Aoi, Gastric Cancer.2024; 27(5): 1069. CrossRef
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Purpose
Recent clinical trials have reported response rates < 50% among patients treated with programmed death-1 (PD-1)/programmed death-ligand 1 (PD-L1) inhibitors for microsatellite instability‒high (MSI-H) colorectal cancer (CRC), and factors predicting treatment response have not been fully identified. This study aimed to identify potential biomarkers of PD-1/PD-L1 inhibitor treatment response among patients with MSI-H CRC.
Materials and Methods
MSI-H CRC patients enrolled in three clinical trials of PD-1/PD-L1 blockade at Asan Medical Center (Seoul, Republic of Korea) were screened and classified into two groups according to treatment response. Their histopathologic features and expression of 730 immune-related genes from the NanoString platform were evaluated, and a machine learning–based classification model was built to predict treatment response among MSI-H CRCs patients.
Results
A total of 27 patients (15 responders, 12 non-responders) were included. A high degree of lymphocytic/neutrophilic infiltration and an expansile tumor border were associated with treatment response and prolonged progression-free survival (PFS), while mucinous/signet-ring cell carcinoma was associated with a lack of treatment response and short PFS. Gene expression profiles revealed that the interferon-γ response pathway was enriched in the responder group. Of the top eight differentially expressed immune-related genes, PRAME had the highest fold change in the responder group. Higher expression of PRAME was independently associated with better PFS along with histologic subtypes in the multivariate analysis. The classification model using these genes showed good performance for predicting treatment response.
Conclusion
We identified histologic and immune-related gene expression characteristics associated with treatment response in MSI-H CRC, which may contribute to optimal patient stratification.
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Purpose Machine learning (ML) is a strong candidate for making accurate predictions, as we can use large amount of data with powerful computational algorithms. We developed a ML based model to predict survival of patients with colorectal cancer (CRC) using data from two independent datasets.
Materials and Methods A total of 364,316 and 1,572 CRC patients were included from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) and a Korean dataset, respectively. As SEER combines data from 18 cancer registries, internal validation was done using 18-Fold-Cross-Validation then external validation was performed by testing the trained model on the Korean dataset. Performance was evaluated using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), sensitivity and positive predictive values.
Results Clinicopathological characteristics were significantly different between the two datasets and the SEER showed a significant lower 5-year survival rate compared to the Korean dataset (60.1% vs. 75.3%, p < 0.001). The ML-based model using the Light gradient boosting algorithm achieved a better performance in predicting 5-year-survival compared to American Joint Committee on Cancer stage (AUROC, 0.804 vs. 0.736; p < 0.001). The most important features which influenced model performance were age, number of examined lymph nodes, and tumor size. Sensitivity and positive predictive values of predicting 5-year-survival for classes including dead or alive were reported as 68.14%, 77.51% and 49.88%, 88.1% respectively in the validation set. Survival probability can be checked using the web-based survival predictor (http://colorectalcancer.pythonanywhere.com).
Conclusion ML-based model achieved a much better performance compared to staging in individualized estimation of survival of patients with CRC.
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Purpose The role of tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs) in predicting lymph node metastasis (LNM) in patients with T1 colorectal cancer (CRC) remains unclear. Furthermore, clinical utility of a machine learning–based approach has not been widely studied.
Materials and Methods Immunohistochemistry for TILs against CD3, CD8, and forkhead box P3 in both center and invasive margin of the tumor were performed using surgically resected T1 CRC slides. Three hundred and sixteen patients were enrolled and categorized into training (n=221) and validation (n=95) sets via random sampling. Using clinicopathologic variables including TILs, the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression model was applied for variable selection and predictive signature building in the training set. The predictive accuracy of our model and the Japanese criteria were compared using area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC), net reclassification improvement (NRI)/integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), and decision curve analysis (DCA) in the validation set.
Results LNM was detected in 29 (13.1%) and 12 (12.6%) patients in training and validation sets, respectively. Nine variables were selected and used to generate the LASSO model. Its performance was similar in training and validation sets (AUROC, 0.795 vs. 0.765; p=0.747). In the validation set, the LASSO model showed better outcomes in predicting LNM than Japanese criteria, as measured by AUROC (0.765 vs. 0.518, p=0.003) and NRI (0.447, p=0.039)/IDI (0.121, p=0.034). DCA showed positive net benefits in using our model.
Conclusion Our LASSO model incorporating histopathologic parameters and TILs showed superior performance compared to conventional Japanese criteria in predicting LNM in patients with T1 CRC.
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LASSO
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Purpose
This study was conducted to develop and validate an individualized prediction model for automated detection of acquired taxane resistance (ATR).
Materials and Methods
Penalized regression, combinedwith an individualized pathway score algorithm,was applied to construct a predictive model using publically available genomic cohorts of ATR and intrinsic taxane resistance (ITR). To develop a model with enhanced generalizability, we merged multiple ATR studies then updated the learning parameter via robust cross-study validation.
Results
For internal cross-study validation, the ATR model produced a perfect performance with an overall area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC) of 1.000 with an area under the precision-recall curve (AUPRC) of 1.000, a Brier score of 0.007, a sensitivity and a specificity of 100%. The model showed an excellent performance on two independent blind ATR cohorts (overall AUROC of 0.940, AUPRC of 0.940, a Brier score of 0.127). When we applied our algorithm to two large-scale pharmacogenomic resources for ITR, the Cancer Genome Project (CGP) and the Cancer Cell Line Encyclopedia (CCLE), an overall ITR cross-study AUROC was 0.70, which is a far better accuracy than an almost random level reported by previous studies. Furthermore, this model had a high transferability on blind ATR cohorts with an AUROC of 0.69, suggesting that general predictive features may be at work across both ITR and ATR.
Conclusion
We successfully constructed a multi-study–derived personalized prediction model for ATR with excellent accuracy, generalizability, and transferability.
Citations
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