Jung Ryul Oh, Boram Park, Seongdae Lee, Kyung Su Han, Eui-Gon Youk, Doo-Han Lee, Do-Sun Kim, Doo-Seok Lee, Chang Won Hong, Byung Chang Kim, Bun Kim, Min Jung Kim, Sung Chan Park, Dae Kyung Sohn, Hee Jin Chang, Jae Hwan Oh
Cancer Res Treat. 2019;51(4):1275-1284. Published online January 17, 2019
Purpose
Predicting lymph node metastasis (LNM) risk is crucial in determining further treatment strategies following endoscopic resection of T1 colorectal cancer (CRC). This study aimed to establish a new prediction model for the risk of LNM in T1 CRC patients.
Materials and Methods
The development set included 833 patients with T1 CRC who had undergone endoscopic (n=154) or surgical (n=679) resection at the National Cancer Center. The validation set included 722 T1 CRC patients who had undergone endoscopic (n=249) or surgical (n=473) resection at Daehang Hospital. A logistic regression model was used to construct the prediction model. To assess the performance of prediction model, discrimination was evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves with area under the ROC curve (AUC), and calibration was assessed using the Hosmer-Lemeshow (HL) goodness-of-fit test.
Results
Five independent risk factors were determined in the multivariable model, including vascular invasion, high-grade histology, submucosal invasion, budding, and background adenoma. In final prediction model, the performance of the model was good that the AUC was 0.812 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.770 to 0.855) and the HL chi-squared test statistic was 1.266 (p=0.737). In external validation, the performance was still good that the AUC was 0.771 (95% CI, 0.708 to 0.834) and the p-value of the HL chi-squared test was 0.040. We constructed the nomogram with the final prediction model.
Conclusion
We presented an externally validated new prediction model for LNM risk in T1 CRC patients, guiding decision making in determining whether additional surgery is required after endoscopic resection of T1 CRC.
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Kyung Su Han, Dae Kyung Sohn, Dae Yong Kim, Byung Chang Kim, Chang Won Hong, Hee Jin Chang, Sun Young Kim, Ji Yeon Baek, Sung Chan Park, Min Ju Kim, Jae Hwan Oh
Cancer Res Treat. 2016;48(2):567-573. Published online September 22, 2015
Purpose
Local excision may be an another option for selected patients with markedly down-staged rectal cancer after preoperative chemoradiation therapy (CRT), and proper evaluation of post-CRT tumor stage (ypT) is essential prior to local excision of these tumors. This study was designed to determine the correlations between endoscopic findings and ypT of rectal cancer.
Materials and Methods
In this study, 481 patients with locally advanced rectal cancer who underwent preoperative CRT followed by surgical resection between 2004 and 2013 at a single institution were evaluated retrospectively. Pathological good response (p-GR) was defined as ypT ≤ 1, and pathological minimal or no response (p-MR) as ypT ≥ 2. The patients were randomly classified according to two groups, a testing (n=193) and a validation (n=288) group. Endoscopic criteria were determined from endoscopic findings and ypT in the testing group and used in classifying patients in the validation group as achieving or not achieving p-GR.
Results
Based on findings in the testing group, the endoscopic criteria for p-GR included scarring, telangiectasia, and erythema, whereas criteria for p-MR included nodules, ulcers, strictures, and remnant tumors. In the validation group, the kappa statistic was 0.965 (p < 0.001), and the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value were 0.362, 0.963, 0.654, and 0.885, respectively.
Conclusion
The endoscopic criteria presented are easily applicable for evaluation of ypT after preoperative CRT for rectal cancer. These criteria may be used for selection of patients for local excision of down-staged rectal tumors, because patients with p-MR could be easily ruled out.
Citations
Citations to this article as recorded by
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